OECD 노동생산성, 총노동시간, 임금 간 동태관계 분석

Dynamic Relationship among Labor Productivity, Employment and Wages in OECD Countries

This paper analyzes the relationship among labor productivity, employment and wages in OECD countries. Specifically, by using a structural panel vector autoregressive model, the paper estimates and compares the effects of exogenous shocks on labor productivity, employment (proxied by the total hours worked), and wages in manufacturing and service industries. Results show that labor productivity shocks have statistically significant and negative effects on employment in the short run in both manufacturing and service sectors, and therefore, the real business cycle theory is not supported. However, our results support performance-based pay system since labor productivity shocks cause real wages to increase in both the manufacturing and service industries. We find that wage growth is less than productivity growth relative to a labor productivity shock. Productivity shocks in both manufacturing and service industries have negative effects on employment. Most particularly, the negative effect of wages on employment is greater in the capital-intensive manufacturing sector. Wage shocks have greater and sustained effects on wages in the manufacturing sector than in the service sector.