Understanding the Syrian Crisis

Most policymakers and analysts have been overly-optimistic in their predictions of the imminent demise of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. Thus, it is necessary to assess what factors have allowed the regime to survive for so long. This working paper by the Middle East and North Africa Center at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies is organized into three sections. Section one argues that continuing military loyalty to the regime and international protection from intervention have been the crucial variables enabling the regime’s survival. Section two argues that there must be a concerted effort to remove key elements of Assad’s security apparatus and that those states supporting the opposition must first reach a consensus before dealing with Syria’s backers. Section three concludes by outlining how, without adequately dealing with these two variables, a post-Assad Syria could continue to face significant security challenges.