칼로리와 영양 균형을 고려한 식량안보 대응 식량공급 전략 분석

Food Supply Strategies Considering Calorie Intake and Nutrition Balance

This study analyzes how to build a production infra to supply food stably considering calorie intake and nutrition balance. Three types of mathematical models are constructed for this: minimizing procurement cost model, minimizing certainty equivalence model with procurement cost risk premium, and goal programming. Goal programming seeks the attainment of three goals: policy self-sufficiency ratio goal, green-house gases goal, and environment cost of livestock industry goal. Long-term consumption of major food is predicted using prediction model where income, population structure, activity rate of women, urbanization level, and trend are the explanatory variables. Finally this study suggests the level of long-term production infra to supply food stably in 2025 and 2035. About 1,005∼1,523 thousand hectare of cultivation land and 858∼ 1,267 thousand farm houses are required in 2025, and about 941∼1,468 thousand hectare of cultivation land and 821∼1,241 thousand farm houses are required in 2035 for food security. As the total cultivation land and number of farm houses keep decreasing each year by 0.8% and 1.8% respectively, food security remains issue of concern in the longterm. Thus, countermeasures is needed to sustain sufficient cultivation acreage and number of farm houses for food security.