Variables Explaining Vulnerability to Natural Disasters

The magnitude of damages and losses caused by natural disasters is a function of several variables, such as the size of the catastrophe and the characteristics of the affected area. The present study attempted to identify such variables that account for the degree of the damages and losses. For the study, 22 related data sets for South Korea were obtained, and 14 variables were extracted as potential candidates. Then, five important variables were identified, through the use of three selection techniques of regression models, i.e., 1) Bayesian model averaging (BMA), 2) stepwise selection, and 3) genetic algorithm. They were ‘the number of hospitals’, ‘total annual precipitation’, ‘maximum wind speed’, ‘the lowest temperature’, and ‘agricultural land’. The results support the normative statement that, along with the meteorological variables, a community’s adaptive capacity and the characteristics of land use are significant determinants of the size of the loss. Implications are drawn for disaster management: programs for prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery should be strengthened.