농식품 수출물류비 지원사업 폐지의 수출영향 분석

(An Analysis of the Impact of Discontinuance of Export Logistics Cost Support on Export Performance for Agricultural Products)

The subsidizing logistics cost that is incurred from exporting agricultural products is evaluated as the most direct and effective support mechanism that has been contributing to the expanded export of agri food in Korea. However, it is almost certain that the support program for logistics cost will be downsized and terminated because of the WTO/DDA negotiations completed for the agricultural sector and the expected participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership. In order to accomplish the government target of 10 billion dollar export of agrifood until 2017, it is necessary to first analyze the impact of this unavoidably forced change in the government support program and then reorganize the portfolio of the export support programs. The results from applying the 2-Stage instrumental variable approach to the random effects Tobit model to estimate an export equation reveal that the downsize and termination of the export logistics cost support program will reduce the amount of export of ginseng by 7.9%, 6.7% for vegetables, 6.4% for fruits, and 4.6% for flowers. All the other indirect support programs as a whole were analyzed to be a significant factor for having increased the export volume for all items. Therefore, the expansion of the other indirect support programs can be a reasonable alternative against the export logistics cost support. Meanwhile, the analysis also finds that the loan support program has a statistically significantly positive impact on the amount of export only for vegetables and flowers, implying that it is necessary to develop item-specific strategies for encouraging the use of the loan support program as well as improving the application of the program.