한우 수급 및 가격 전망 모형 구축 연구

(Economic Model for Forecasting Supply, Demand, and Prices of Hanwoo)

This study develops an economic model for simulating policy effects on Hanwoo market and forecasting the number of raised and slaughtered Hanwoo, the wholesale and farm price of Hanwoo. We analyzed the structure of Hanwoo market and the factors affecting the market supply and demand. The model is composed of supply, demand, and price parts. Individual equations in each part are estimated through Excel’s solver or a statistical software. Forecasting error of each equation is examined using the measure of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results of prediction accuracy verification reveal high prediction capability of the estimated equations.