Shifts in Russia’s Pipeline Gas Policy: An Insight into Premises and Consequences

Russia-EU relations have significantly deteriorated in the course of the Ukrainian crisis. As soon as Russia started realising the effects of sanctions introduced by the EU (and some other countries) to hurt its economy as a whole and the energy sector as its prime engine, in particular, Russia activated the efforts to nullify Ukraine’s role as a principal transit partner and diversify away from critical dependence on the EU for gas exports. While Russia’s motivation for these two moves is clear, the rationality of such shifts seems to be worthy of examination. The article concerns the recent shifts in Russia’s gas policy attempting to illuminate if Turkey can be a better partner than Ukraine, as well as whether China can be instrumental in materialisation of Russia’s “diversify-away-the-EU” agenda. In doing so, the article assesses the impact of sanctions on Russia’s economy and its gas sector, in particular. It features Russia’s contemporary Eurasian pipeline gas policy and analyses possible outcomes of Russia’s decisions to modify its gas relationship with the EU through closer cooperation with Turkey and diversification of pipeline gas flows towards China.