조사료 생산기반 확충사업이 조사료 시장에 미친 효과 분석

Analysis on the effects of government’s support for forage production

Since there is no economic incentive for the producers to produce forage, domestic forage sup-ply would be very limited without government’s support. This paper develops a simulation model for assessing the policy effects on the self-sufficiency rate of forage. Forage supply and demand equations are estimated based on the theoretical discussion and the estimated parameters from these equations are applied to the developed simulation model. Analytical results suggest that gov-ernment’s support policies have positive impacts on increasing the self-sufficiency rate. Without the policies, forage self-sufficiency rate would be decreased by 32 percent. This implies that for-age self-sufficiency rate would remain at 55.7 percent with no government’s support.