글로벌 동태 CGE모형을 이용한 한·중 및 한·중·일 FTA 체결의 경제적 영향 분석: 쌀 MMA정책의 반영

The Economic Impacts of Korea-China and Korea-China-Japan Free Trade Agreements: A Recursive Global CGE Model Analysis

This study analyzes the economic impacts of Korea-China (KC) and Korea-China-Japan (KCJ) free trade agreements (FTA) using a recursive dynamic global CGE model, PEP-w-t with the GTATP DB 8. The CGE model is revised so that it can incorporate the minimum market access rice trade policy of Korea. Agricultural sectors are very disaggregated in the model because the impact on agriculture has been the most concerned issue in the three cuntries. From the per-spective of Korea, the KC FTA is preferred to the KCJ FTA when only the GDP growth rate is considered. Japan is going to be the biggest winner of the KCJ FTA while Korea is going to ob-tain much higher GDP growth under th KC FTA. However, when the agricultural sector is con-cerned, the KCJ FTA is much more preferred because the agricultural imports from China will in-crease substantially under the KC FTA where the Japanses market is still closed. On the contrary, when Japan also participates in the FTA, the differences in scenarios on agricultural trade liberali-zation play relatively little impact on Korean agriculture.