재배 시기별 기후변수가 논벼의 단위면적당 생산성과 변동성에 미치는 영향 분석

Climate Impacts on Rice Productivity and Variability in Korea

This study examines the impacts of seasonal climate variables such as monthly mean temperature, accumulated precipitation, sunshine duration and daily range of temperature on rice yield levels and variability in Korea. A Just-Pope function is applied to a panel data set of 59 cities and towns with the corresponding climate data. Future rice productivity and variability are forecasted based on the estimation results under two different RCP scenarios. It is found that climate variables affect both productivity and variability of rice production although there are seasonal differences in their directions of influence. Productivity is affected by sunshine duration and daily range in the grain-filling months as well as temperature and precipitation. Higher temperature in the vegetative phase reduces yield variability while higher precipitation in the grain-filling season increases output risk. It is shown that there is a trade-off between future productivity and variability, depending on the RCP scenarios, due to the countervailing effects of climate variables.