기상요인을 고려한 인삼의 탄저병 피해 추정

An Estimation of Damages caused by Ginseng Anthracnose based on a Weather-Related Damage Function Approach

Diseases and insect pests which are sensitive to weather conditions are always recognized as major problems causing enormous damages in crop production unless appropriate control measures are applied. The values of establishing generalized control measures for diseases and insect pests are increasingly greater than ever. Given these observations, this paper pursues two main purposes. Firstly, we construct the damage function specific to ginseng anthracnose including weather variables. Reflecting that the data we used is left-censored, a tobit model is app lied. Furthermore, we use a PANTOB mode l to correct for problems associated with fixed effect tobit model generating biased parameter estimates due to the problem of incidental parameters. Secondly, we estimate the imp act caused by ginseng anthracnose on the domestic ginseng markets. The EDM (Equilibrium Displacement Model) is used for this purpose. The estimation results suggest that humidity and high temperature variables significantly affect the outbreak of ginseng anthracnose which is consistent with preivous research. We also showed that (i) the out-break of ginseng anthracnose could have negative imp acts on domestic ginseng production, and (ii) the negative impacts are even more significant when import price of Ginseng is decreased.