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학술저널

Optimal Harvest Decisions under Production Risk: A Case of Ginseng in Korea

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Korean ginseng has been a major cash crop in Korea and the importance of ginseng industry has been widely accepted. However, while there is an increasing demand for 6-year-old ginseng, producing 6-year-old ginseng is not an easy task because of production risk (e.g., diseases, insect pests) involved in the mature process of ginseng. Thus, from a ginseng growers’ perspective, optimal harvest decision is important. This paper uses an asset replacement model to investigate optimal harvest decision. By utilizing a discrete dynamic programming approach, it was found that the pro-duction of 4-year-old ginseng is an optimal choice under the production risk involving gray mold which is one of the major ginseng related diseases. The sensitivity analysis also supports this finding.

Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Model and Data

Ⅲ. Estimation Results

Ⅳ. Summary and Concluding Remarks

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