돈육선물의 헤지성과

Hedging with Lean Hog Futures

This paper estimates optimal hedge retios and compares their hedge performance in the newly incepted Korean lean hog futures market. We use daily prices of lean hog spot and futures contracts from July 21, 2008 to January 29, 2010, and employ the time-varying bivariate GARCH(1,1) model as well as various time-invariant models(OLS, VECM). Interestingly, the hedge performance of the OLS model is highest for the within-sample period. For the out-of-sample period, the hedge performance of the bivariate GARCH(1,1) model is highest, which beats that of the OLS model by small margins, though. Our results imply that a simple OLS hedge model is good enough, compared to other models including complex time-varying hedge models, especially in immature futures markets.