Assessing the Uncertainty of Land Based Carbon Sequestration: a Parameter Uncertainty Analysis With a Global Land use Model

This paper analyzes the effect of uncertainty in several key parameters on forest land use and carbon sequestration. Monte Carlo techniques are used to turn the global forest model with no probability (Sohngen & Mendelsohn, 2003; 2007) into a proper probability model through Latin hypercube sampling. The Monte Carlo simulations indicated that most of the uncertainty in forest area in developed countries relates to uncertainty in parameters of the biomass function while in developing countries, where deforestation is more important (e.g., Brazil), the simulation showed the parameters of land supply elasticity to have the most important implications for carbon supply. The results also provide information that can be used to estimate uncertainty intervals for carbon sequestration cost functions.