한-ASEAN FTA의 무역확대 효과

The Effects of the Korea-ASEAN FTA on Trade Flows

This paper estimates the impact of the Korea-ASEAN FTA on trade flows between Korea and ASEAN countries. Using cross-country time series data for the period 2000-2015, we analyze by panel estimation the trade effects of FTA, Major empirical findings are as follows.: First, our results indicate that Korea-ASEAN FTA plays an positive role in increasing Korea’s exports and imports, supporting the hypothesis that FTA will increase trade flows between member countries. Second, estimating the influence of other variables on trade flows, the results indicate that GDP and per capita GDP have large significant effects on trade flows, while the change of exchange rate doesn’t have significant effects on trade. This indicates that an increase in foreign demand leads to an increase in export flows, but the exchange rate is not a significant determinant of Korea’s export and import flows among Korea-ASEAN countries.