베이시스 추정치를 활용한 곡물 저장전략의 유효성에 대한 검증

Effectiveness of Grain Storage Strategy Using Projected Basis

This study is a simulation to test the grain storage strategy that grain should be stored only when the expected basis appreciation exceeds the variable cost of storage. The simulation using a 5-year historical average basis resulted in a ￠8.93/bu(￠11.97/bu) increase in corn(soybeans) storage returns for hedged storage using basis storage signal, compared to routine hedged storage. For hedged storage, average net returns to corn(soybeans) were ￠19.84/bu(￠19.95/bu) higher for years in which the basis storage signal indicated that grain should be stored than for years in which the basis storage signal indicated that grain should not be stored.