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Prospects for Rice Industry according to the Results of the WTO Renegotiation in 2004

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This paper deals with 2010’s projection of rice concerning supply and demand, inventory, price by employing simultaneous equation statistical model in a case of both tariffication and extended MMA. Theil’s inequality coefficients were obtained to forecast the precision of rice model. Extended MMA increases not only production but inventory more than tariffication. Tariffication brings more consumption due to a decrease of consumer price than extended MMA. Additional import through tariffication is expected to be just 7.4% of consumption.

ABSTRACT

I. Introduction

II. Estimation of Policy Variables and Structural Equations

III. Simulation and Analytical Results

IV. Conclusion

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