트럼프시대 동북아 정세와 한반도 문제

The Northeast Asia situation and Korean Peninsula Problems in Trump era

1) The common response to Trump s victory of presidency race is ‘increased uncertainty’. Trump s America First is a realistic nature centered on national interests rather than isolationism. The problem is that there will be many differences from the traditional international methods in concrete means. It reduces the United States s burden on the world order that the United States maintains and instead increases the cost of other countries. First, the foreign policy of Trump will be appear as a based on trade and foreign policy to the China by aggressive attitude. However, the Trump administration will continue to strengthen Japan s role in detering China, like the Obama administration. Second, ROK-US relations in the Trump era are likely to result in increased alliance costs and structural changes can be appear by political situation in ROK. The ROK-US alliance may be subject to negotiation and profit and loss calculations as the elements of the traditional military relationship weakened. However, how the domestic political situation in Korea will evolve can have a big impact on Trump s policy to the ROK. Third, North Korea-US relations in the Trump era can stand at the crossroads of confrontational crisis and big deal. If North Korea tries to withdraw the USFK through negotiations with the Trump Administration, and if the internal political situation in Korea is favorable to North Korea and the ROK-US alliance makes a plosive sound, the North Korean nuclear dismantlement and USFK withdrawal exchange card is also can be. Fourth, in the era of Trump, Korea should prepare for an increase in crisis management factors and opportunities for unification. We must clearly recognize that the United States should be involved in UN sanctions against North Korea while maintaining international cooperation. In particular, ROK actively say the issue of unification to the US along with North Korea problems.