김정은 정권의 권력 안정성 - 안정 요인과 불안정 요인 분석 -

The Power and Stability of Kim Jong-Un’s Regime - An analysis of stability and instability factor -

This research paper seeks to analyze Kim Jong Un’s regime by using “regime transition theory” as the theoretical basis for determining the regime’s future outlook, stability and goals. Kim Jong-Un’s regime, a one leader party/military first politics which was built by Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il, has been handed down to Kim Jong Un. Kim Jong Un has established a strong, winning coalition in order to protect the vested interests of his supporting ruling elite and himself. Furthermore, Kim Jong Un’s regime has China’s support whose policy goals for the Korean peninsula is the stability of the North Korean government. China’s support is one of the factors that have kept the Kim Jong Un regime stable. However, because of Kim Jong Un’s small power base and negligible time in command, the lack of faith in his leadership could result in a power struggle. North Korea’s chronic food shortage and economic crisis have accelerated the alienation of the people to the regime. This increasing societal division can be a factor of instability for the regime. In the interim, Kim Jong Un’s regime can be successful at stabilizing its power but it has a high probability to fail in stabilizing the entirety of North Korea. Thus, South Korea should stay vigilant against possible security threats from North Korea and move towards enacting policies which could weaken the North Korean security threat.