김정일 시대의 일본인 납치문제와 관련한 외교정책 결정요인 - 로즈노우(Roseneau)의“ 예비이론(pre-theory)”의 관점에서 -

Factors Influencing North Korea s Foreign Policy Decision-Making During the Kim Jong-Il Era, With Regards to the Abductions of Japanese Citizens - From the Perspective of Roseneau s Pre-Theory -

From 1977 to 1983, for a period of six years, North Korean government agents had abducted Japanese citizens from Japanese territories. On September 17, 2002, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi visited North Korea to meet Kim Jong-il. In a talk with Koizumi, Kim admitted to the abductions of 13 Japanese citizens by North Korean agents and issued an oral apology. Although the relationship between Japan and DPRK seemed to normalize after the initial talk in 2002, it fell short of expectations. The goal of this study is to analyze factors influencing North Korea’s foreign policy decision-making with regards to the issues related to the abduction of Japanese citizens, using Roseneau s pre-theory. The study mainly discusses situations which occurred after the Japan-DPRK talk in 2002 and its aftermath. Several potential factors that influenced North Korea’s foreign policy decision-making were identified through the analysis. First, Kim s personal preferences about practical diplomacy led himself to admit to kidnappings with expectations for the normalization of Japan- DPRK relations. Furthermore, the DPRK’s strong desire to avoid international isolation, as a systemic variable, also played a significant role in admitting to the abductions. Finally, severe economic difficulties in North Korea have forced him to admit to the abductions