축산물가격의 동태적 조정과 시사점

Dynamics of Pork Price and Its Policy Implications

The paper aims to empirically analyse the dynamics of pork prices and its policy implications for the period 1983 to 1999, and will present policy implications accordingly. Incomplete price information for the meat distorts the farmer`s decision making on the livestock production and increases the possibility of resource misallocation. The interrelationships among variables and the dynamic adjustment to various disturbances in the pork price system can be understood by examining variance decompositions and impulse response functions(IRFs) based on Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results of variance decompositions indicate that price shock of young pig, pork, beef and hog feed on price of pork accounts for 53.5, 35.6, 6.6, and 1.1 per cent in the 1 year, respectively. And according to estimated IRFs, one standard deviation shock to innovation in price of hog feed, beef, and young pig seem to have permanent effects on pork price, but the shocks of the number of hog breeding and hog slaughter on pork price seem to be have a transitory effects.