비정상미청구공사 규모와 재량발생액, 감사시간·보수 및 주가의 관련성

Relations of Abnormal Unbilled Contract Receivables with Discretionary Accruals, Audit Hours, Audit Fees and Stock Prices: Evidence on Accounting Issues of Constructions and Shipbuilding Industries

금융위원회 등(2015)은 2015년 말에 발표한 수주산업 회계품질 개선대책에서 건설･조선업의 진행기준 수익인식 회계 추정상 문제가능성이 있고, 특히 미청구공사채권(이하, ‘미청구공사’) 규모가 회계부실 징후를 갖는다고 하였다. 그러나 진행기준 수익인식기업 기업에서 미청구공사 증가는 부실징후일 수도 있지만 정상적 변동일 수도 있다. 본 연구는 진행기준 미청구공사가 이처럼 부실･정상의 양 성격이 있음을 고려하여, 미청구공사의 기업특성에 따른 평균적 값을 추정하여 제거한 추정잔차(비정상미청구 공사)를 사용하여 조사를 수행한다. 구체적으로, 재량발생액에 따른 비정상미청구공사 규모의 변동과, 비정상미청구공사 규모에 대한 투자자와 감사인의 반응을 조사한다. 또한 건설･조선업과 비건설･조선업 사이의 차이와 2015년 회계감독 강화 이후 변동을 함께 조사한다. 연구결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 재량발생액이 음의 값인 건설･조선업 기업들이, 음의 재량발생액이 클수록 미청구공사 금액을 비정상적으로 더 많이 계상하였다. 둘째, 전체표본에서 비정상미청구공사 규모가 클수록 투자자는 긍정적으로 평가하였으나 감사인의 인식은 유의한 차이를 보이지 않았다. 반면에 건설･조선업은 비정상미청구공사 규모가 클수록 감사인과 투자자가 모두 부정적으로 인식하였다. 셋째, 회계감독이 강화된 2015년에 건설･조선업 기업에 대한 투자자의 부정적 인식은 유의하게 개선되었으나 높은 비정상미청구공사 규모의 건설･조선업에 대한 감사인과 투자자의 부정적 인식은 바뀌지 않았다. 위 조사결과에서, 건설･조선업 기업의 음의 재량발생액이 클수록 비정상미청구공사가 유의하게 높은 점과 비정상미청구공사 크기가 큰 건설･조선업 기업을 투자자와 감사인이 부정적으로 인식한 점은, 금융위원회 등(2015)의 강화된 회계감독이 수주산업에 초점을 맞춘 것과 일관성이 있다. 반면에 이 정책 발표 후인 2015년에 건설･조선업 전반에 대한 투자자의 인식은 개선되었으나 큰 미청구공사에 대한 투자자나 감사인의 부정적 인식은 변화가 없다는 점은 향후 회계감독 정책 추진 관점에서 주목을 끈다.

Financial Service Commissions (FSC) and other regulators (Financial Supervisory Service [FSS], Korean Institute of Certified Public Accountants [KICPA], and Korea Accounting Institute [KAI]), together, published a press release in October 2015. The document indicates that Korean construction and shipbuilding companies’ financial reporting quality has been deteriorated because of adverse changes in business environment and unfavorable business structure, and includes proposed action plans to improve accounting transparency of the order-receiving industries. The document also indicates various explanation for the distressing industry situation, among which it is noted that the unbilled construction contract receivables could be an indicator of bad signals of the industry because they may be increasing when contractor’s incurred costs are not recoverable from the customers but revenues are continuously recognized under the percentage-of-completion method. Meanwhile, Korea Investor’s Service published an analysis report for potential risks of the increased unbilled contract receivables of construction companies, but explained that unbilled receivables are representing risks as well as normal operating performance, together. This paper investigates whether the magnitude of unbilled contract receivables has signalling effects; specifically, I see the relations of abnormal unbilled contract receivables with absolute discretionary accruals, audit hours and audit fees, and value relevance of accounting information. Also, any changes in them are investigated in 2015 as compared with those in 2014 or before since the regulatory actions on the constructions and shipbuilding industries are taken in 2015. In addition, I see any differential effects on such relations between construction and shipbuilding industries and other industry companies using the percentage-of-completion method samples. Abnormal unbilled contract receivables are used by the unbilled contract receivables estimation residuals (AbnUnbill); such two stage regression would eliminate normal portions of unbilled receivables. Our samples are 944 firm-year observations from 2011 to 2015, which consists of 324 firm-year of construction and shipbuilding industries and 620 firm-year of other industry companies who are recognizing revenues under the percentage-of-completion method. Experimental variables are abnormal value of unbilled contract receivable ratio (divided by total sales) and construction and shipbuilding industry dummy (Const) variables. As a result, I find the following empirical results. First, The construction and shipbuilding companies samples having higher absolute value of the negative (unbilled receivable-adjusted) discretionary accruals, the abnormal unbilled contract receivables are significantly higher. It indicates that “Big Bath”—recognizing construction and shipbuilding companies are likely to increase abnormal unbilled contract receivables. Such relationship has no changes in 2015. Second, audit fees are increased when AbnUnbill increases in the construction and shipbuilding companies samples, while audit fees of other samples and audit hours or hourly fees of all samples do not significantly changes. Meanwhile, investors’ perceptions measured by the value relevance of earnings information show diverse aspects. The investors positively perceived AbnUnbill information of percentage-of-completion method companies’ earnings as compared with those of the construction and shipbuilding companies samples, but they perceived Const variables negatively. Third, I find that the investors’ negative perception on construction and shipbuilding companies improved in 2015 when the strengthened regulations on the construction and shipbuilding companies are implemented, while investor’s perceptions on the non-construction and shipbuilding companies deteriorated in 2015 possibly due to adverse changes of national economy.