수출신용보험과 수출액 간의 인과관계 분석

A Causality Analysis of Exports and Export Credit Insurance: A Focus on Berne Union Members

The purpose of this study is examine the causal relationship between export credit insurance and exports, and to ferret out policy implications. To this end, we attempt to provide more careful consideration of the causality issues by applying rigorous techniques of Granger causality on annual data covering the period 1993-2016. Unit root test, co-integration test, and Granger causality based on an error correction model are conducted. This study starts by testing stationarity applied to variables. The unit root tests show that it is not unrealistic to assume that all concerned variables are integrated of order one. Where the concerned variables are integrated of the same order, it is necessary to examine whether there exists a long run equilibrium relationship between the concerned variables, using co-integration tests. Accordingly, the co-integration test results showed that the export credit insurance and exports were cointegrated. Thus, we applied Granger causality based on an error correction model. The results indicate that uni-directional causality between export credit insurance and exports is detected. Export credit insurance impacts on exports, but exports do not impact on export credit insurance. In other words, export credit insurance is the driving force for exports hikes.