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학술저널

Gathering Storm or Silver Lining Out of the Clouds?

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Thc nuclear vcapons lests ronducted by North Korea in Octobcr 2006 ,md May 2009 demons tralcd the failure of attcl1lpts by the intcrnation<l l (0πmunity !ed by the Un i‘ed States 10 d ctcr such dcvdoprncn t. The s itualion hilS now bc<:omc a problem of compclling thc North 10 give up ils IVpons program. Drawing from thc li h~rilt urc 011 derrcll C failu llS nnd α、c dipJonwcy‘ <Ind from Sl C<lIdi cs, th is paper rccxaminι s the Ilnturc imd progression of the issue. It argues thilt the U.s. 1, il c1ιa r VISlon its obκlives and fail 10 crcate a scn‘;c of urgency in N‘’rth Korea 10 dccide on and implement the b ition of ilnuclt ;u program;and ,1 the Sl ffiC limι the of punishment uscd by tht, U.S. crc limit duc 10 thc lraq Waι North Korcl s mi!itmy l plbil“y, and the lack of rdinatωn l nlClng thc nlultiplc cocrccrs. This paper proposs Ihat while thc U.s ‘lI1d its lics prcparc a ll1ulti facctd , thrcats and inctS to persuade the North thi lt the cosls of the wCipons progmm oull써igh it5 !Jene further pro ltions ‘uld nL tate a decisive i1pp1ici1lion of αX rdvcdiplomacy.

1. Introdu ction

II. Rules of the Game: The “ Carrot or the “ Stick ?

lll. Deterrence and Coercive Diplomacy (1)

The Cuban f issile Crisis, 1962

IV. Deterrence and Coercive Diplomacy (2):

The North Korean Crisis of 1994

V. Deterrence and Coercive Diplomacy (3)

f he Second North Korean Nuclear Crisis

VI. Gathering Storm or SiJver Lining Out of Clouds?

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