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NorthKorea’sRocketand Nuclear Tests, 2009:

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Are the North Korean missile and nudear tests of 2009 a threat to regional security, or are they indicative of the fears of DI RK? Although it is true that North Korea’5 actions bring it der to the deve)opment of a nuclear missile arsenal, a review of the Ii terature on security dilemma indicates that it is possible that North Korea s actions were driven by fear. This article examines four poible interpretations of Norlh Korea’s intentions behind the nucJear and m.issile tests, and begins by cxamining the possibilily that Pyongyang’s actions were dri ven by its fears of Seoul. The second aJtemative is that DPRK was acting 10 com municate its resolve against Washington. A lhird interpretation suggests intemal poliing within Pyon’ang may have been a fac!or behind the missile and nudear test5. AI the same time,however, it is al50 possible that Pyongyang intends to develop nuclear missiles

l. Introduction

ll. North Korea:

Security Threat or Security Dilernrna?

III. Is North Korea Fearful of South Korea?

IV. Is North Korea Afraid of the U.S.?

V. North Korean Intema1 Politics and Kim Jong-il’5 Succession?

VI. 15 North Korea Intent on Developing Nucear Weapons?

VII. Conclusion:

ImpIications for P이icy Responses

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