North Korea’s Fourth Nuclear Test: System Pressures, Decision Makers’ Perceptions, and Foreign Policy

This article examines why North Korea undertook its fourth nuclear test in early January of this year. First, North Korea perceived the level of “hostile” policy toward it from the U.S. to be steadily increasing, including the Ulchi Freedom Guardian joint military exercises that took place under OPLAN 5015. Second, North Korea interpreted the increased threats from the U.S. and other forces within the context of theories about North Korea’s collapse. In other words, the increasingly “hostile” U.S. policy toward North Korea within the context of theories of North Korean collapse prompted the latter to react harshly against the enemy by enhancing its capability as a nuclear weapons state. Considering the timing of the fourth nuclear test, the opening of the 7th Party Congress of the Workers’ Party scheduled for early May 2016 may be regarded as one of the important domestic factors in North Korea’s policy-making process. To gain an understanding of North Korean nuclear strategy, this article adopts the neoclassical realist framework, which incorporates domestic factors with systemic incentives.