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The North Korean Nuclear Multilemma: Options to Break the Nuclear Deadlock in Northeast Asia

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The DPRK’s emerging nuclear weapons capability threatens the strategic status quo, from Korea all the way to the global nonproliferation regime. As a result, the region finds itself caught in a deadlock, with no apparent way out. In fact, we argue that the problems posed by the DPRK’s nuclear weapons are so complicated and multi-level that they present policymakers with a true multilemma. This issue was designed to give the reader a comprehensive and even-handed presentation of the true complexity of the North Korean nuclear issue. It elicits realistic policy options for the Trump and post-Park Administration that will outlast the immediate political transitions in Washington and Seoul, and provides insight as to where and how the two allies might approach the DPRK’s nuclear threat based on a rethinking of the North Korean crisis.

Abstact

I. Introduction

II. DPRK Fissile Material Production

III. North Korea’s Goal: Submarine Launched Nuclear-Armed Ballistic Missiles

IV. Strategic Effects of Increased Nuclear Threat on Korean Stability

V. The Bleak Strategic Nuclear Landscape

VI. The China Factor and Realistic Goals for Six-Party Talks and Cooperation

VII. The Trump and Park Factors

VIII. Constructing a Multilateral Security Settlement

IX. Sanctions and Settlement of the North Korea Nuclear Issue

X. Civil Society and the Nagasaki Process

XI. Conclusion

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