Explaining Share of Farm Loss Systemic with County Loss in the United States?

Purpose - Relationship between farm and county losses determines whether the county program provides too little, too much, or similar amount of assistance relative to the loss on an individual farm. A review of the literature finds limited analysis of the determinants of this relationship. This paper conducts such an analysis using farm-level yield data. Research design, data, and methodology - Farm-level yield data from Illinois and Kansas farm business management associations are used for to calculate the correlation between farm and county loss and the share of farm loss systemic with county loss, and also for the regression analysis. Results - Average share of farm loss systemic with the county loss lies between 42% and 68%. The correlation between farm and county yield/revenue deviation from expected value is statistically significant in all four models. The coefficient is positive, implying the higher the correlation, the larger the share of farm loss that is systemic with the county loss. Conclusions - The findings of this study are consistent with the existing literature which argues that county variability may not be closely associated with farm variability. The findings of this study thus raise questions about the efficacy of area yield and revenue insurance products in helping farmers manage their risk.