중력모형을 이용한 한국의 TPP 회원국에 대한 수출 추정

The Estimation of Korea’s Export to Trans-Pacific Member Countries Using The Gravity Model

This paper analyzed the effect of the TPP on Korean economic growth using the gravity equation derived by Anderson and Wincoop (2003). The gravity model in this paper was mainly derived from CES utility function and used variables Consumer Price Index (CPI), distance, and FTA. The result throws skepticism on the benefit of TPP to Korea, even with the US as its partner country in terms of TPP. In recent days, trade amount is less influenced by physical distance but trade barriers, and the result shows the reality. The most important feature of the trade with TPP membership countries was CPI. Findings reveal that Korea CPI works very well for increasing export to TPP member countries and this trend is followed by partner countries’ CPI. However, the direction of the Korea CPI is interesting in that Korean exports increase strongly when Korea CPI increases. This implies that high Korea CPI doesn’t mean strong Korean Won to foreign currency. On the other hand, if Korean CPI increases the Korean Won value goes down which result in increasing exports to other countries.