역내포괄적경제동반자협정(RCEP) 체결에 따른 한국의 회원국들 간 대외교역효과분석

A Foreign Trade Effect Analysis of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and South Korea

The financial crisis of 2008 and the European debt crisis pushed the whole world into a recession and since 2000, China has been confronted with an economic downturn due to swiftly increasing debt primarily caused by overinvestment. Consequently, the world economy is already tipping toward deflation and the global slowdown has seriously hurt the Korean economy in term of decreased exports and imports accruing from the global slowdown. In this respect, RCEP led by China potentially can provide the Korea’n economy with an opportunity to create an enormous internal market and maintain sustainable economic growth. Thus, this paper empirically analyzes the foreign trade effect of the RCEP on Korea and among the RCEP member countries using panel data analysis. It was determine that Korea can capitalize on increasing its trade effect by 26.71% on the average fixed effect estimation if the RCEP officially becomes effective in 2017.