다중 이산 연속선택모형(MDCEV)을 이용한 한국 소비자의 신선육 구매 결정 요인

The application of Multiple Discrete Continuous Extreme Value Model on fresh meat purchase in Korea

Modeling the consumer dem and of fresh meat requires its distinct feature which other types of food product does not have. Most of the fresh meat products are likely to be unbranded, bought on a weight basis and affected by macro shocks such as seasonality, holiday effect and the disease incidence. Furthermore, consumers tend to purchase multiple categories of fresh meat in a week. Therefore, we apply a multiple discrete/continuous model on fresh meat consumption data to study the effect of macro shocks on fresh meat sales as well as of price change. As a result shows, Each fresh meat is relatively more likely to be bought in peak season of each fresh meat compared with imported pork which is set as a ‘reference category’ in this analysis. For clarity of the effect of disease incidence, we perform further analysis regarding the effect of livestock disease on fresh meat purchase probability. It show s that the avian flu in 2014 has strong negative impact on the purchase probability of chicken and the foot-and-mouth disease has negative impact on the purchase probability of pork and beef for part of outbreak periods.