한국 항만물류산업에 대한 해외직접투자의 영향

An Estimation of Effects of Foreign Direct Investment on Korean Port-logistics Industry

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of inward foreign direct investment and outward foreign direct investment on the growth of port logistics industry through the development of port hinterland and the creation of port trade volume. The method is based on the vector autoregression model (VAR). We estimate the long-term relationship between the growth of the port logistics industry and foreign direct investments through cointegration tests and estimation of cointegration coefficients. We also analyze on short-term dynamics as well as long-term equilibrium relationships through causality tests, impulse response function and forest error-variance decomposition using error correction model. As a result, foreign investment factors have a positive (+) impact on the growth of the port logistics industry in the long term and short term. In particular, the impact of inward foreign direct investment on the port logistics industry is more immediate and impactful over a relatively long period of time and statistically significant than that of outward foreign direct investment. However, the contribution of outward foreign direct investment to the growth of the port logistics industry is larger than that of inward foreign direct investment, but it is decreasing with time. Therefore, it is necessary to raise policy and academic interest on how to link the growth of port logistics industry with the inward foreign direct investment and the outward foreign direct investment.