长期非线性政策变迁的间断-均衡框架

A Punctuated Equilibrium Framework for Long-term Nonlinear Policy Change: Taking Chinesesocial assistant policy for vagrants (1949-2014) as a case

The monopoly of policy image and policy venue strengthens the equilibrium of policy, andthe policy makes a punctuated change when the monopoly is broken. Therefore, the long-term policy change always shows the nonlinear characteristic. Punctuated change is reflected in the shift of policy paradigm, which containspolicyobjective, policy instrument and precise setting. The punctuated-equilibrium theory has sufficient explanatory power for the change of long-term public policy. This essay apply the framework to the changeof Chinesesocial assistance policy for vagrants from 1949 to 2014.The analysis shows assistance policy for vagrants has experienced two punctuated changes in 1982, which by a top-to-down imposed path, and 2003, which by a down-to-top induced path. Theequilibrium state of the policy is strengthened by traditional culture and constitutional structure.