정권생존, 이란의 귀환 그리고 중동의 새로운 정치역학

Regime Survival, Return of Iran, and New Political Dynamics in the Middle East

Political dynamics in the Middle East is rapidly changing into more complexity. Although the Islamic State (IS), which was the most serious threat to stability in the Middle East, is actually ending, confusion and conflicts in the region are increasing. In addition, the Middle East is getting caught up in new conflicts as various external forces have intervened in the crisis in Syria and iraq. As a result, the Middle East is divided into the two main axes of the Sunni belt led by Saudi Arabia and the United States and the Shia belt dominated by Iran and Russia in the form of a new Cold War in the region. This article attempted to approach the rapidly changing intra-regional sectarian conflicts and the new cold war formation with the two variables: the return of Iran as a regional variable and the regime survival of each authoritarian state as a domestic variable. Thus, this study explains the hypothesis that the imminent tasks in containing Iranian influence and perpetuating regime survival have brought about the spread of sectarian conflicts and the formation of a new Cold War system in the Middle East. These two variables will help to understand the current regional political phenomena and dynamics.