거시경제변수와 주택매매소비심리의 관계에 관한 연구

A Study on the Relationship between Housing Purchasing Consumer Sentiment Index and Macroeconomic Variables

The purpose of the study is to derive the decision factors of the housing purchasing consumer sentiment index in terms of macroeconomic variables and stock market. The VECM(Vector Error Correction Model) is adopted since the used data has a time-serial one. The results of impulse response function and variance decomposition show that an interest rate, the stock index(KOSPI) and consumer price index are the main factors determining the housing purchasing consumer sentiment index. Among them, an interest rate influences the most to the housing purchasing consumer sentiment index due to an increase or decrease in the financial costs of mortgage loan. It is also identified that the movement of stock price index delivers a relatively big influence to the consumer sentiment of housing purchase. However, an economic growth rate that is regarded as a typical factor of housing purchasing power was not identified as an influential factor. The results of the study therefor imply that the increase and decrease of those factors can give positive or negative impacts on the housing purchasing consumer sentiment, resulting in changes of the housing demand. In summary, analyzing those factors is crucial for investment strategy and policy making of housing market.