지역주택가격이 결혼연령 및 첫째, 둘째 자녀 출산시점에 미치는 영향

The Effects of Regional Housing Prices on the Age at Marriage and the Timing of First and Second Childbirths

As one of the world’s lowest fertility rate becomes a critical social problem in Korea, this paper empirically analyzes whether the burden of housing costs delays marriage and sequentially discourages first and second childbirths using the Korea Labor Institute Panel Survey data of 2000-2014 period. Based on multiple regression analyses for marriage and survival analyses for childbirths, different effects are identified: The higher the housing prices in the area where newly married couple chooses to live (regional housing prices) are, the higher the marriage age of both bride and bridegroom is. Nevertheless the time interval between marriage and first childbirth is not affected by regional housing prices. It is rather the timing of second childbirth that is significantly influenced by the burden of housing costs. As regional housing prices become higher, the time interval between first and second childbirths of rental households increases while the probability of second childbirth of monthly renters is lower than that of Chonsei (lump-sum up-front deposit system) renters. These results suggest that the housing policies aimed at coping with low fertility be articulated focusing on preventing a delay of marriage and especially on encouraging the second childbirth which is essential in preventing a population decrease.