주택경기 순환주기의 지역 간 관계 분석

Relations Among Regional Housing Business Cycles

Korean government is implementing so called “tweezers-regulations” recently. Research on ripple effect is necessary to predict its impact, but there are few in Korean housing market. We tried to analyze the ripple effect by regional housing business cycles. We used CF filter while most of the preceding researches in Korea used HP filter to extract cyclical component. Our cross correlation analysis suggests that capital area’s housing business cycle precedes the housing business cycles of 5 metropolis and other provinces. Granger causality test supports the theory and it also suggest that all three regional housing business cycles granger-cause to each other. According to our VAR analysis, however, 5 metropolis and other provinces do not cause each other but move independently. We tried to explain these relations among regional housing business cycles by housing demand, supply, GDP and housing mortgage. The result of regression analysis on regional housing business cycles and other variables’ business cycles shows that there are hierarchical sensitivity on GDP and housing mortgage balance among those regions. So we narrowly concludes that the ripple effect on three regions might exists not just because of the market expectation, but because of regional market fundamentals.