싱가포르 미·북 정상회담 의미와 한국의 안보

The US-North Korea Summit and the Security of South Korea

지난 6월 12일 싱가포르에서 개최된 미·북 정상회담에서 트럼프 미국 대통령과 김정은은 (1) 새로운 미·북 관계의 수립, (2) 항구적이고 공고한 한반도 평화체제 구축, (3) 한반도의 완전한 비핵화, (4) 미군 전쟁포로 및 행방불명자들의 유해발굴 및 송환에 합의했다. 한반도에서 총구를 맞댔던 미국과 북한의 정상이 70년만에 처음으로 만났다는 역사적 의미에도 불구하고, 당초의 기대와는 달리 정상회담은 추상적이고 불명확한 개념으로 포장된 짧은 공동합의문으로 끝을 맺었다. 정상회담 개최 하루 전까지 북한의 완전하고 검증가능하며 되돌릴 수 없는 비핵화(CVID), 한국전 종전선언, 북한에 대한 안전보장 등이 회자되고 있었던 것에 비하면 너무나 초라하고 내실없는 성과라고 하지 않을 수 없다.

The US-North Korea summit on June 12 in Singapore enhanced expectations of a resolution of the North Korea nuclear issue. The summit produced an agreement that was full of such ambiguous phrases as “denuclearization of the Korean peninsula” instead of “denuclearization of North Korea.” There is no evidence to support President Trump’s claim that he has achieved the denuclearization of North Korea. UN Security Council-led sanctions, however, will be jeopardized. The US and North Korea agreed at the summit on “new US-North Korea relations,” “establishment of a peace regime in the Korean peninsula,” and “denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.” As a result, the US and North Korea are set to talk to improve diplomatic relations, to declare an end to the Korean War, or to adopt a peace agreement. There continues to be a dispute over denuclearization of the Korean peninsula due to different interpretations of that phrase. According to North Korea, denuclearization of the Korean peninsula means suspension of US-South Korea joint military exercises, prohibition of US strategic asset deployment in and around the peninsula, the non-use of US nuclear weapons against North Korea, the non-use of nuclear weapons by USFK, etc. Immediately after the summit, President Trump decided to suspend Ulchi Freedom Guardian, a US-ROK joint military exercise. It is not clear, however, if Trump’s real intention is denuclearization of North Korea or elimination of North Korea’s nuclear-armed ICBMs that threaten the US mainland. Suspension of the US-ROK joint military exercise significantly weakens deterrence capability against North Korea, nullifies the US-ROK CFC, and may stimulate reduction or withdrawal of the USFK. South Korea must make strenuous efforts to ensure it has an independent deterrence capability against North Korea. Economic compensation or military pressure cannot guarantee denuclearization of North Korea, unless Kim Jong Un is sincere about denuclearization of his country. Inducing North Korea toward reform and opening might be the best solution for denuclearization of North Korea.