중국 가계의 예비적 저축과 소비

China private Consumption and Precautionary Savings - Specially about China Migrant Worker

Even though China had a wonderful economic growth by the government-driven economy model and export·investment-driven growth model since the 1972, new open economy era, nowadays China has been suffering from high corporate debt problem,protectionism with U.S.A., and financial insecurities. China government is promoting new growth engines such as IT industries, 3rd service industries, urbanization and private consumption boosting, and so on. But urbanization and private consumption boosting policy has a trouble with migrant workers’ precautionary savings. This study discusses a kind of precautionary savings of China migrant worker in viewpoint of LCPIH(Liquidity Constraint Permanent Income Hypothesis), and analyzes China’s income elasticity of consumption by worker groups and by income status in method of quantile regression. This study says that if income status is increased, consumption is getting more elastic. Especially the migrant worker’s income elasticity is getting elastic more rapidly. This study suggests that china government should support the migrant workers’ social securities and income stabilities in order for migrant workers to consume their income instead of precautionary savings. This study is somewhat practical, so lack of theoretical development, but gives a lot of implications toward market investors and economists in viewpoint of new growth engines and economy balancing both to Korea and to China. Because both Korea and China need new growth engine, have a trouble with population problems, should promote private consumption and boost domestic demands. Especially Korea has a lot of disputes about temporary workers, minimum-wage policy, income-driven growth policy, so this study want to give a kind of clue toward these discussions.