The North Korean Nuclear Crisis and U.S.-led Missile Defense Responses in Probabilistic Analysis

The paper examines the set of responses to North Korean ballistic and nuclear programs from the perspective of U.S.-supported diplomatic and military non-proliferation efforts with a special focus on missile defense. The XXI-century Pyongyang’s investments in securing the regime by weapons of mass destruction (nuclear-based deterrence) were seen as a potential source of serious international military conflict. Until the 2018 détente decades of sanctions aimed at dictatorial Pyongyang’s regime nuclear military programs showed the weaknesses of peaceful international attempts to limit dangerous WMD proliferation. Before 2018 Pyongyang under the Kim Jong Un regime reached strategic nuclear capacities through a provocative upgrade of its existing arsenal, proving the implemented sanctions-based measures to limit the North Korean ballistic and WMD armaments to be largely ineffective. The presented analysis employed the probabilistic model to analyze ballistic missile defense effectiveness as one of the discussed response options to the North Korean crisis by comparing the leakproof performance likelihood at various levels of single shot kill probability (SSKP) in scenarios of engaging additional interceptors against warheads attacking in a salvo.