피해 통계자료 활용 유클리드 거리 기반 재난ㆍ사고 유형간 위험순위 산출

Risk Ranking among Types of Disaster and Safety Accidents Based on Euclidean Distance Using Damage Statistical Data

국가안전관리기본계획 및 재난안전예산과 그에 따른 세부사업을 포함하는 부처별 국가안전관리집행계획의 실효성 제고를 위해서는 고위험 분야를 선정하여 집중적인 안전관리 대책을 마련하는 것이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 재난 및 안전사고의 발생과 그에 따른 피해 통계자료를 활용하고, 유클리드 거리에 의하여 피해규모를 정량화하는 방안을 제안하였다. 다양한 재난ㆍ사고 개별 유형에 대한 위험순위를 산출하기 위해 (ｉ) 재난ㆍ사고 전체 피해현황(최근 5년(2012-2016) 연평균 발생건수 및 인명피해, 재산피해), (ⅱ) 대형재난의 특징(발생주기, 건당 인명피해, 건당 재산피해)을 고려하였으며, 5단계의 세부 분석과정을 수행하였다. 분석결과, 풍수해, 안전취약계층 사고, 선박 재난ㆍ사고, 화재ㆍ폭발, 사업장 산재 등이 고위험군으로 선정되어, 중점 관리가 필요한 것으로 판단된다.

In order to improve the effectiveness of the Master Plan for National Safety Management and its Implementation Plans, which include disaster and safety budgets as well as specific projects from relevant central administrative ministries and agencies, it is necessary to identify the types of high-risk disasters and accidents, and establish intensive safety management measures for selected types. In this study, based on Euclidean distance using statistical data, a method to quantify the scale of damage caused by disasters and safety accidents is proposed for determining the risk ranking among various types. We carried out an analysis of several different factors to cover two aspects: (i) the current status of damage on overall disasters and safety accidents-the annual average number of disasters and accidents in the recent 5 years (2012-2016), as well as human casualties and property losses; and (ii) the characteristics of large-scale catastrophic events-the occurrence cycles of disasters, human casualties per disaster, and property losses per disaster. The analysis was carried out in five steps. As a result, storms and floods, accidents in vulnerable social groups, maritime accidents, fires and explosions, and industrial accidents are in the high-risk group for concentrated disaster and safety management.