國家間 經濟的 相互依存性과 分爭에 관한 硏究 : survey study

A survey study on the economic interdependence and conflict between countries

The questions of whether the economic interdependence throuhg trade affects international conflic have received increased attention from economists, political scientists, and sociologists with a long history. This paper examines the extant literature of the relationship betwwen economic interdependence and conflict in order to deremine whether such a relationship exists, and if it does, whether it is positive or negative. For this purpose, first, the paper reviews competing theoretical arguments concerning the causal mechanisms that are believed to link interdependence with international conflict. The theoretical links between trade and conflict can be categorized into two field: liberalism and realism. Liberals, emphasizing the mutual benefits to be gained from trade between and among countries, expect economic interdependence to produce strong incentives for peace and, therefore, less conflict. Each causal strand of liberalism’s argument emphasizes how individuals or governments react to maximize the benefits of interdependence. In direct contrast, many realists emphasize the potentially costly aspects of interdependence, along with the power asymmetries and friction that economic relationships can generate. The resulting hypotheses are that interdependence causes more conflict or that this relationship is either insignificant or holds only at the least important margins. Secondly, the paper reviews the formal and empirical literature regarding the above theoretical claims. The questions of whether and how economic interdependence influences international conflict have been addressed using formal models, statistical analyses, and case studies. This paper looks at twenty of these studies. In addition to examining whether the evidence supports the hypotheses of liberalism or realism, the review explores how differences in the operationalzation of key variables and the specification of the models may explain divergent findings. To a certain extent, the empirical results reviewed reflect the differing emphases on either the costly or the beneficial components of interdependence which stems from trade among nations. The extant empirical results of the relationship between economic interdependence and international conflict concludes that the position advocated by liberalism is strongly supported. However, althought the results of a majority of the studies reviewed here support the liberal hypothesis that economic interdependence decreases conflict, many also pose important questions and qualifications. These quetions make it premature to declare liberalism the theoretical winner; they also point to important areas for further research. And the empirical questions provide an important opportunity for theoretical refinement or reformulation.