외국인 직접투자(FDI) 활성화를 위한 정책 시뮬레이션

Analysing Factors Affecting FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) Using System Dynamics Approach

This paper aims to identify crucial factors affecting FDI which is regarded as a driving force for economic development in a country, to forecast future values of dependent and mediating variables involved in FDI policy process using SD (System Dynamics) approach, and to put forward practical policy measures to reinforce FDI achievements. In doing so, we build causal diagram with loops, simulation model including mediating and dependent variables, and seven policy scenarios by which future conditions could be analyzed and forecast, and also we conduct sensitivity analysis to discover how sensitively each scenario fluctuates. Regarding analysis tool, we employ Powersim program which is a special purpose software program designed for system dynamics simulation. The analysis results predict what seven policy scenarios produce, especially with regard to the variables involved in FDI model and also they show how sensitively the policy scenarios respond to certain environmental change.