재난발생의 지역경제효과 분석모형 기법연구

Korean Economic Impacts Model on Disaster Evaluation (KEIMODE)

Korea, recently experiencing diverse disasters, does not have economic models to analyze the impacts from the disasters. The absence of rigorous model which provides regional economic ripple effects caused by natural or man-made disasters has made local and central governments difficult to financially support a targeted region. We examine several models which are actively applied to measuring those impacts and suggest an approach to estimate economic impacts on the disasters occurred in Korea. Our study is not only to suggest a direct approach which calculates the damage usually using insurance, building disruption and other direct sources but to extend the damage evaluation interindustrially, interregionalyl, and temporally. We call it Korean Economic Impacts Model on Disaster Evaluation (KEIMODE). Although we have not showed any empirical result on the approach, this study provides an important framework to modeling economic impacts on Korean disasters by extending current models applied in the impact analysis. For example, it can be applied to the Hebei Spirit oil spill event occurred in the Chungnam, its neighboring area and the entire nation, because it can provide an effective evidence about financial support of central and Chungnam governments from the Hebei Spirit accident.