위안화 국제화에 따른 외환시장 변동성 증대가 한국의 대중국 수출에 미치는 영향 분석

The Effect of Won/Yuan Exchange Rate Volatility on Korea’s Export to China

This study empirically examines the effects of exchange rate volatility on Korea’s exports to China using monthly data from July 2005 to May 2018. The ARDL model was used in this study to analyze the long-term and short-term effects of exchange rate volatility on Korea’s export to China. Empirical results show that long-term volatility of won to the dollar contributes to the decrease in Korea’s exports to China, while volatility of yuan to the dollar leads to an increase in Korea’s exports to China. In addition, the effect of exchange rate volatility has a somewhat different effect on each industry rather than having a same effect on all industries. Based on the above results, the government should strengthen its macro-prudential policy to stabilize exchange rate volatility and prepare countermeasures against exchange rate volatility.