VR 쇼핑의 시나리오기법과 베스확산모형을 이용한 수요예측

Demand Forecast of VR Shopping Using Scenario Writing and Bass Diffusion Model

VR is a technology that makes virtual space using computer technology and which is currently used mainly in the entertainment field such as games. However, its application is getting wider in scope as new contents are created by combining it with other industrial fields of study. Therefore, it is interesting to find out what effect VR shopping will have on the future of the distribution industry. Global distributors are testing the introduction of a new distribution model using VRs because VR shopping may become popular in the future, as people who actually shopped in real markets have moved to online shopping via PCs and then to mobile shopping. In this study, we estimated the size of the domestic VR shopping market. Since the VR industry is still in its introduction stage, there are almost no quantitative data, which are useful for predicting how the VR customer base will evolve. We therefore estimate the parameters of the Bass Diffusion Model using data on recent similar products that meet each of several scenarios. We then estimated the VR market size.