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학술저널

北美 自由貿易協定(NAFTA)과 韓國 對美輸出 效果 分析

The Economic Effects of NAFTA on the Korean Export Goods to U.S.

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This research paper analyzes the possible effects of North-American Free trade Agreement(NAFTA), involving the United States, Canada and Mexico, on the export of Korean goods. the North American FTA, adding Mexico to the group, are currently well under way for final ratification in countries involved. When completed, the North American FTA will represent a market of 360 million people and U$ 6 trillion of GNP. This will compare with the integrated market of Europe in 1993 with its 357 million population an U$5.4 trillion of GNP. The formantion of a North American FTA will have far-reaching implications for the trade policies of non-member countries, such as Korea, whose trade success depends heavily on the North American market. A bilateral or a trilateral FTA basically represents a perferential trade agreement between partner countries and discriminatory relations against the countries outside of the FTA. Formation of a free trade area(or economic integration of several countries) essentially represents a plan for reducing trade barriers (such as tariff and non-tariff barriers) between partner countries and providing preferred access to each other’s market within the FAT. Previous studies designed to analyze the impact of free trade area have focused on thr analysis of trade-diversion and trade-creation between FTA partner countries. Studies on these trade-diversion and trade-creation effect, in turn, involved the estimates of price elasticity of import demand(price effect), import elasticity with regard to GNP growth(income effect) and the degree of substitution between competing imports from two different sources (substitution effect), In this study, the main focus is on the analysis of these trade-diversion and trade-creation effects between a FTA member country and a third party country outside of the FTA, namely Korea. Such analysis of the trade impact between a FTA member and a non-member country is more complicated than that of the intra-FTA trade, and the results of such analysis are more uncertain. The study utilizes regression analysis to estimate the impact of th NAFTA on Korean exports. The effects of the Korean exports to the U.S, represented by the natural log of the U.S. imports from Korea in the t period, were regressed on a number of selected variables. The analysis generally covers the 1980-90 period on a quarterly basis and the products selected are at a 3-digit SITC classification level.

Ⅰ. 北美 自由貿易協定의 性格

Ⅱ. 北美 自由貿易協定의 豫想效果에 대한 事前推定模型의 導出 및 推定結果

Ⅲ. 韓國의 對應策

SUMMARY

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