한국 공적개발원조(ODA)의 수출, 생산 및 고용 효과

The Effects of Korea’s Official Development Assistance (ODA) on Exports, Output and Employment: A Gravity Model Analysis

This paper empirically analyzed the effects of Korea’s ODA on its exports, output and employment, thereby providing some policy implications. For the analysis, we conducted dynamic panel regressions based on the gravity model, taking into consideration the continuing relationship of the countries engaging trade. In doing so, we used bilateral ODA and macroeconomic data for 45 recipient countries that have received concessionary loans as well as grants from Korea over the period from 1989 to 2016. Main empirical results are as follows. First, Korea’s ODA significantly increases its exports to the recipient countries. Second, the increase in exports falls after Korea’s entry into the OECD Development Cooperation Committee (DAC). Third, a dollar increase in Korea’s ODA raises its exports by $2.90 in the short run and by $7.20 in the long run. Fourth, Korea’s input-output table shows that a dollar increase in Korea’s ODA expands Korea’s value-added by $1.50 in the short run and by $3.80 in the long run. Finally, Korea’s ODA has generated 230,000 domestic jobs in the short run and 580,000 jobs in long run over the past 28 years.