대도시 지역별 주택 기대가격 상승률 추정

A Study on the Expected Growth Rate in Housing Prices in Metropolitan Areas of Korea

본 연구는 지역별 주택 기대가격 상승률 추정에 관한 연구로 상태공간모형과 칼만필터를 이용해 분석하였다. 본 연구의 공간적 범위는 서울과 6대 광역시로 하였고 시간적 범위는 2001년 1월부터 2017년 12월까지의 월별자료를 이용하였다. 주택가격은 아파트매매가격지수로 임대소득은 아파트전세가격지수와 아파트매매전세비율을 이용하여 아파트 매매가격대비 전세가격을 구한 후 지역별 전월세환산율을 적용하여 월 임대소득을 추정하였다. 지역별 주택 기대가격 상승률을 추정한 결과, 서울과 인천은 글로벌 금융위기 이전까지 지속적으로 상승하다 글로벌 금융위기 이후에는 정부의 주택시장 활성화를 위한 규제완화정책에도 불구하고 주택 기대가격 상승률은 지속적인 하락을 하다가 2016년 이후에는 서울을 중심으로 미약하게 상승하는 양상을 보이고 있다. 반면에 지방은 대부분 지속적인 하락세를 유지하였고 부산지역이 가장 높은 수준을 유지하고 있으나 현재는 하향안정세를 나타내고 있다.

1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The aim of study is to estimate the expected growth rate in housing prices in metropolitan areas of Korea. (2) RESEARCH METHOD This study is an empirical analysis using state space model and Kalman filter for estimating expected growth rate in housing prices by region. The spatial range of this study was in Seoul and the 6 metropolitan cities. The temporal range was from January 2001 to December 2017. House prices were calculated by using apartment price index and rent income by using apartment Chonsei index and apartment rent ratio. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS As a result of estimating the expected housing price growth rate by region, Seoul and Incheon continue to rise until before the global financial crisis. After the global financial crisis, despite the government s deregulation policy to revitalize the housing market, the expected growth rate in housing prices has been steadily declining. However, since 2016, the Seoul metropolitan area has been rising slightly. Most of the non-metropolitan areas maintained a steady decline, while the Busan area remained at its highest level, but it is now downward stabilizing. 2. RESULTS The results of this study suggest that the expected growth rate in housing prices is closely related to the housing market as well as the rental market. The government continuously monitors the housing market by using the expected growth rate in housing prices, There is a need to closely monitor trends and establish preemptively differentiated housing policies by region. In other words, when the expected growth rate is high, the housing market stabilization policy will contribute to stabilize the market. If the expected growth rate is low, the rent price may rise.