중국 부동산 개발사업에서의 투자 단계별 위험요소가 투자의사에 미치는 영향

The Effect of Risk Factors to Investment Intension in Real Estate Development in China

중국 부동산 개발 프로젝트를 진행하는 과정에서 발생하게 되는 투자 단계별 (개발 착수 단계, 개발 실시 단계, 개발 후 단계) 위험요인과 투자심리 및 투자행동의 구조적 관계를 파악하고, 변인들 간의 인과관계를 검토하는데 연구목적이 있다. 또한 주요 변수 간의 인과적 관계와 단계별 위험요소에 반응하는 민감도를 분석하고 그 민감도에 따라 사업 진행 과정에서 어떠한 위험요인이 설정한 6개의 가설이 채택되고 배제되는지를 실증적으로 검증 분석하여 결과를 제시하였다. 검증 결과 “착수단계 위험요인이 증가할수록 실시 단계의 위험요인은 증가할 것이다” 는 가설 1과 “실시단계위험이 증가할수록 개발 후 단계의 위험도 증가할 것이다” 는 가설 2는 기각되었다. 가설 3의 개발 단계의 위험요인이 증가할수록 기업들의 투자심리는 감소하고 가설 4의 위험요인이 증가할수록 기업들의 투자행동도 감소하는 것으로 분석되었다. 가설 5의 “중국 부동산 개발기업들의 투자심리가 증가할수록 투자행동은 증가 한다” 는 결론을 얻었으며 단계별 위험요인이 기업들의 투자행동에 미치는 영향에서 투자심리는 매개효과를 가질 것이라는 가설 6도 채택으로 확인되었다.

1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES This study aims to examine the effect of risk factors in real estate development in China to investment intension. To achieve the goal, the study divided the risk factors into three large categories and eight sub-categories through literature review. Then this study analyzed how the risk factors effect to investor behavior by being mediated of investor sentiment. (2) RESEARCH METHOD To collect data, this study sampled and surveyed companies which have experiences of real estate development in Korea and China, and now settled in China. 100 questionnaires in total were analyzed and the samples’ characteristics are as follows. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS The survey analyzed the risk factors of China’s real estate investment phase and analyzed the effect of the related systems on investor sentiment and investment behavior. 2. RESULTS The analysis results are as follows: First, risk factors in the step-by-step development process did not statistically represent significant causes and consequences for each other. Second, the effect that investment psychology decreases as risk components increase was significant. Third, the effect of increasing risk factors also was significant. Fourth, investor psychology has had a significant impact in proportion to investor behavior. And by dividing the model into direct and indirect effects, the risk factors directly affected the entity’s investment behavior, showing the effect of investment psychology on the entity’s investment behavior. In particular, post-development risk factors have the greatest impact on investor behavior. An analysis of the overall impact on investment decisions showed that risk factors at each stage decreased investor sentiment as risk factors increased, and that investment behavior also decreased, and investment behavior increased as investment psychology increased.